"The Best Scenario"

Introduction

There are a few things we need to consider when talking about future projects. And that is "driving" forces.

More specifically, drivers for change. A so-called "Driver for change" is a variable or factor that can alter an project or help shape one.

And while arguably there are different variables for each project I’d like to state that there are a few generic ones that can be "somewhat" applied to all projects.

These drivers include; Ambitions, financial situations and existing market. You might also include the current technological resources and future ones as they may dis-/allow specific projects.

Ambition is shared throughout the group; but usually stems from the original vision-holder. It is important that the group shares the same ambitions with the project unless they begin pulling in opposite directions.
It's also important to maintain that same level of ambition throughout the creative process. A sudden decline in ambition could result in the project halting all together or become incredibly ineffective.

Money is, of course, important since all projects require proper funding if it is ever to take-off or get released. Project-funding is usually based on a Risk/Reward framework, And because of this it can be hard to get funding for a new and previously untested type of game.

By "market" i am referring to the supply/demand currently in play. The market is constantly changing away from conventional games, due mainly to the fact that consumers get bored easily with the tried and true. This opens up possibilities to explore new territories by adapting old design-methods with new ideas.

Technology can also influence a project simply by being able to deliver new and exciting things that people have never/rarely seen before.

Since we've established a few factors of common "drivers", how can we make use of this knowledge? One way is to integrate the drivers into a viable framework and use that in turn to analyze potential (and likely) "project-scenarios".

Constructing a framework upon which we analyze different scenarios, is all about context. Since every person has had an unique experience growing up, they'll likely perceive the "cause and effect" of the drivers differently.
Perhaps the most efficient way to construct a viable framework is to gather as many people in a room as possible and have them group "drivers" and effects together.

Since i don't have access to that kind of manpower (yet!) i will have to do it on my own!

Ambitions are great, and without a doubt the kick start for any project. However, failing to maintain ambition or allowing ambitions to grow uncontrolled could have serious implications in you project. Ambitions can cause a sudden raise in cost, without producing any substantial results, or perhaps reduce cost and still result in a better product.

Make sure that Ambition is tempered with a proper HR (human relation) department (eg. having a person in charge of keeping your employees/group-members happy!).

Financial backing can be a bit tricky, You have to be able to prove that your project/game can satisfy a potential gap in the market (or in some way compete with existing products). You see, it's all about the risk/reward assessment, and all investors are really interested in; Is ending up with more money then what they had before.

The market is ever changing, and usually in a predetermined path. This could be because the taste in game repeats itself due to saturation (eg. 3 years with only FPS, REALLY makes you want to play a RTS). Riding the market-wave can give you heads-up about potential gaps that you could seize. However, since public opinion is also changing, you might end up trying to satisfy a need that never arose in the first place. Being vigilant and looking for small hints can minimize the risk, but not eliminate it completely.

Of course, we are also restricted by technology. The market might take a sporadic turn of change due to the introduction of new technology into conventional game design, or the lack of technology might prevent you from satisfying the needs of the consumer group. This is were conventional game design is mostly applied! By applying the "tried-and-true" method you can ensure that at least some part of the target audience will be satisfied, even if it means sacrificing the other part of the group.

Potential Events

• Market observations reveal an untapped consumer-group that can be satisfied within the realms of existing technology.
• Technological advances allows you to compete with products on a existing market.
• Technology is introduced causing the market to make a sporadic change into unexplored territory (RUN FOR YOUR LIVES!)
• Ambitions are not maintained and project progression slows down due to low morale.
• Ambitions are untempered and project stalls due to individual members attempt to move in separate directions
• Publishers and investors deem your projects risk assessment to be too high. You are forced to find alternate funding or scrap the project.
• Publishers and investors deem your projects risk assessment to be within managable/acceptable levels and invests in your project.
• Project can be finished without economic funding and still generate revenue.

Consider these a few of the events that could potentially influence the progression of a project.

Likely Scenarios

Consider this, what likely scenarios could we experience over a 1 year period which includes these events?

Usually when planning ahead and making scenario assessments you want to think a few years ahead, mainly so that people aren't getting caught up with all-too-fresh information when trying to predict what will happen.

However, lets break the rule and go ahead and plan for a 1 year period anwyay even if that will probably mean extrapolating on fresh information.

• No major technological advancements occur that would drastically change the flow of the current creative market, However; Market observations indicate an increasing demand for a special type of game. Focusing on this type will lead to decreased risk of competition and might boost profits.
• New application of existing technology allows you to compete with an pre-existing market product. Ambitions might suffer from the lack of originality but is still managable.
• Innovative game design allows you artificially create an alternative to existing consumer-groups, drawing them into trying out different types of games to satisfy their curiosity.
• No technological advancements occur and no apparent gaps in the market present themselves, Projects are deemed high risk with lots of competition.

While alot can happen in a year it can be considered highly unlikely that any major changes in technology will be presented. However, one should dismiss the possibility, therefore it's important to don't waste time and proceed with your project as quickly as possible. Technological advancements have no real-safeguard other then that people usually want to present them ahead of schedule. However, while being vigilant of change, continuing on the notion that no changes will be made and that you are able to notice an increased desire for a special type of game, Groups should quickly organize and begun production.

By acting quickly you can minimize the competition and boost your credibility when pitching your project for potential investors or stakeholders. Low competition also means bigger profits.

You might be able to adapt existing technology to satisfy another desire however; Quite often are old methods "spruced" up and optimized so implementation into new 'experimental' game types. By adapting existing technology you are competing with existing games in the same genre but given an edge due to new mechanics/features. However, if a group isn't properly maintained there is a risk that the lack of being creative/original might have a negative impact on the project members. One should take steps to maintain morale and HR (human relations).

If you are good at your job, and know how to blend different types of gamemodes, you might be able to artificially create new sections of the market. Blending two types of game can cause "cross-overs" which can boost or decline the original genre. One should take precautions as though not to blatantly assume that people will enjoy a game simply because its genre. Disregard for consumer needs could severely damage company reputation.

There is always a possibility that nothing goes your way though; In cases where you have no gap to exploit and no new technology to incorporate; you are left with the choices of brute-forcing the market (By competing with other companies) or applying innovative design. However, there is an natural risk involved that your particular game will not get the projected attention you thought it would, or if people will even like it.

Observing the above scenarios and inherent issues that accompany them we can determine the best possible scenario we could hope for. Assuming that no technological advances are commercialized in the coming year; the best we can hope for is a gap in the existing market. Since we are currently in the phase where "casual" and "FPS"'s are most popular, it is possible that in the near future the market will regress/evolve to accomodate more RTS/TBS (Real-time / Turn-based strategy games). This would allow smaller companies to release smaller games and re-establish the RTS/TBS market.

What opposes that scenario?

However, one should not carelessly presume to know which way the market will move. The market is directly regulated by the amount of gamers invested in specific types of games. This would mean that the only wat the market would regress back to a previous state is if circumstances were to revert to a state similar the one before.

However, the gaming community could very easily to the exact opposite of what we believed and move further away from the so-called "gap" we are looking for. This would mean that time and resources invested would attempt to satisfy a need that might not exist (or atleast not to the extent as first projected).

There is not really much to do about this; You can always try and observe the market but ultimately it's almost impossible to determine what people want to play/experience. You could potentially mititage the impact by recruiting older analysts that may have observed a similar phenomenon before.

However, if you are able to successfully predict the creative market; you'll find yourself scheduling release for an estimated date. Its important not to overshoot your release date because this could allow other companies to release their games alongside your product creating competition. The window of opportunity is harsh and unforgiving.

Potential problems during project progression and how do you deal with them?

Assume that everything is going according to plan and you have a date on which you aim to release your product, how would you go ahead and assess the risk involved in the project? What are the short- mid- and long-term complications?

Short-term complications are problems that might occur within 3 months of project start. Personnel, funding or viable design document are of course included but not limited to short term complications. In my own group i'm currently only concerned about the lack of optimized tools.

Personnel might be a direct result of an uninteresting game pitch or simply because there are no people available for hire, In cases such as these you might have to accept that fact that you might have to outsource that particular position.

Funding is related to the amount of publisher or investors that has taken enough interest in your project that they are willing to pay for expenses. Running out of money mid-production is always a possibility, but chances are that you are going to have a bigger problem getting them to invest to begin with.

Medium-Term complications would likely involve personnel issues; Such as low-morale/ambition and/or the market not showing the change predicted.

Personnel issues are potential project-killers. When issues with your employees arise you often have fewer options to handle it then what you would like. Personnel issues might arise due to bad HR (human relation) or dismay with the current project. Personnel issues must be adressed and appropriatley handled unless you want the project progression to suffer from decreased work flow.

The market may have taken a sudden turn away from what was first predicted, at times such as these; Investors may reconsider continuing to fund your project. Instead they might "scrap" and "scavenge" the project and start up a new one which holds greater promise

Long term complications are issues that arise further into the future (or near release dates). The problem with long-term problems is that they are usually hard to predict. Funding could get cut due to project not showing enough promise or that the investor simply doesn't have enough money. other problems might include sudden loss of personnel (due to death/sickness or by other means incapacitated).

Money is constantly flowing and its not uncommon that an investor simply runs out of resources available to invest into a project. when things like this happen there are a few ways the project could be saved. You could try and get another investor to fund the project until completion, or try and fund the project yourself. Worst case scenarios might include not being able to pay your employees for the remainder of the project.

Sudden loss of personnel are situation that implicate that, due to one reason or another; are unable to fulfill their part in the big scheme. They might have switched jobs, been in a accident or started a family. When this happens you can either try and get a "temp" (temporary employee/Intern) or mitigate the remaining tasks unto other employee's.